A report by Dr Farid El-Hussini

The switch to the new BARB panel (on the 1st of January 2010) is now imminent. What will change? There were teething troubles last time there was a panel switch in January 2002, but this time there has been an effort to ensure a smooth transition, with parallel runs of the old and new panels and timely test data releases to stakeholders.

The new panel is designed to give a more robust representation of the UK population, including more accurate ethnic profiles, a greater understanding of multi-platform homes and a new regional map to eliminate overlapping territories. BARB has been an innovator. It was first (in 2006) to measure and add time-shifted viewing through hard drive recorders (like Sky+). In December 2008 Virgin Media’s Catch-up TV On-Demand service was included, with Sky Anytime following in July 2009. Innovation is set to continue: research into measuring and including catch-up viewing through PCs is underway but it may be some time before this can be implemented.

That said, the new panel is still the same size as the old (averaging about 5100 reporting homes), so there is no immediate prospect of reducing the margin of error for smaller channels. In BARB’s defence, making a significant impact on this would involve a large and impractical increase in the size of the panel. We should however be prepared to see significant changes in the reported performance of the smaller channels, and changes in lower audience transmissions on the larger channels.

But there may be more winners than losers. In a recent parallel run of the old and new panels total television viewing was 4% higher on the new panel. This may seem paradoxical in view of continued speculation about the negative impact of new forms of screen based entertainment (from video games to VOD via the internet). But in fact television viewing has been rising steadily over the last three years, long before the recession gave it a boost by forcing people to cut down on nights out and foreign holidays. Older viewers in particular watch more television when they convert to one of the digital platform options and gain access to the increasing choice of channels. The decline in viewing among younger viewers has also levelled off in recent years, with broadcasters working hard to attract them. New technologies like PVRs and HD have made television more attractive and versatile. As such the higher viewing levels on the new panel are likely to be an accurate reflection of our viewing habits.

Another paradigm shift in the new panel has attracted little media attention: the abolition of the Multichannel Network panel (known in the industry as Panel 70). When the current BARB panel was set up back in 2002, less than half of the UK population had access to multi-channel television, and nearly 80% of all television viewing was to the 5 terrestrial channels (BBC1, BBC2, ITV1, CH4 and Five). Viewing to the terrestrials was to be measured using a panel (known as Panel 50) specifically designed to represent all UK television households. But because it was recognised that multi-channel penetration would continue to grow and had to be accurately captured, BARB set up a subset of Panel 50, called Panel 70. When viewing a channel only available on the multi-channel platforms - be it digital terrestrial, cable or satellite – a panel member in a multi-channel home would be given a Panel 70 weighting to more accurately reflect the multi-channel universe but assigned a different (i.e. Panel 50) weighting for reporting on his or her viewing on terrestrial channels.

The two panels have been converging. Indeed, in November 2009 multichannel penetration stood at 95%, well on target for analogue switch-off in 2012 when it will effectively be at 100%. However this does mean that since we have been used to seeing the Share of viewing for digital channels reported as a proportion of viewing on the Multichannel Network (i.e. in Multichannel Homes only), there is likely to be a small drop in their reported audience Shares. That is because the new basis for comparison will be against the entire Network, including the 5% of individuals in non-multichannel households still unable to access any digital channels. The digital channels are not, of course, losing viewers: it’s just that the basis for calculating their Share of viewing has been expanded to include all households. Indeed, as the remaining 5% of individuals without multichannel access convert to one of the multichannel platforms over the next three years, digital channel operators can look forward to watching their Shares grow.

For more information on any aspect of this report, please email farid.el-husseini@attentional.com or telephone Attentional on +44 (0) 1823 322829.